By March 10, 2026, North India was experiencing rare and unusually early heat-wave conditions, with temperatures recorded 8 to 13°C above normal across several regions. Even Shimla in Himachal Pradesh recorded temperatures exceeding 25°C, which is highly uncommon for March. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted that all-India rainfall in January–February 2026 was 60% below normal, amounting to just 16 mm, making February 2026 the third driest February since 1901 — surpassed only by 1902 and 1905 records.

The causes include a dry winter that prevented soil moisture evaporation, weak Western Disturbances, lack of low-pressure wind convergence, atmospheric anticyclones over the subcontinent, and the amplifying effect of climate change on seasonal temperature anomalies. The IMD advised state authorities and district administrations to ensure timely preparedness, including operational readiness of cooling shelters, adequate drinking water supply and strengthened health surveillance.

The impacts are wide-ranging: rabi crops (wheat, mustard, gram) face heat stress during the critical grain-filling stage, drinking water availability is under pressure due to reduced snow cover, power demand has spiked, and labour productivity in outdoor sectors has declined. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is working on a National Framework for Heatwave Mitigation and Management.

For Rajasthan, which already experiences extreme heat, the early onset amplifies risks to agricultural output (particularly wheat and mustard in Ganganagar, Bikaner, and Alwar districts), livestock, and rural communities. The Rajasthan government's Mukhyamantri Jal Swavlamban Abhiyan takes on heightened urgency amid diminishing winter rainfall.