The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the Emissions Gap Report 2025, a landmark annual assessment of the gulf between countries' pledged climate commitments and the emissions reductions actually required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
The 2025 report carries a stark warning: current national pledges, even if fully implemented, put the world on a trajectory toward 2.3°C to 2.5°C of warming by end of century — far above the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C. This represents a catastrophic overshoot that would result in irreversible damage to ecosystems, agriculture, and human settlements, with particularly severe consequences for South Asia.
India emerges as a significant data point in the report: it recorded the largest absolute increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions among all nations in the measured period. This is driven by India's rapid economic growth, expanding industrial base, growing energy demand, and rising passenger and freight transportation. However, analysts note that India's per capita emissions remain far below those of developed nations like the USA, Australia, and EU member states, making the absolute figure a reflection of India's large population (1.4 billion) rather than profligacy per individual.
A key concern flagged by the report is that India has yet to submit its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement framework, even as COP-related deadlines approach. An NDC sets a country's voluntary climate action targets for emissions reduction, renewable energy, and adaptation.
The report also highlights the billion annual climate finance dispute between developed and developing nations. Developed countries committed to providing billion per year (a goal that was itself only met belatedly), while developing nations argue that the actual requirement is trillion or more annually. The COP29 negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, are attempting to resolve this finance gap — critical for enabling countries like India to pursue ambitious clean energy transitions.