Published: 11 January 2026Economy
Morgan Stanley Projects India FY26 GDP Growth at 7.6%, Matching Latest NSO Estimate
Morgan Stanley projected India's FY26 GDP growth at 7.6%, in line with the National Statistics Office's latest Second Advance Estimate of 7.6%. For FY27, Morgan Stanley's latest reported base-case projection is 6.7% growth. The latest NSO estimate puts nominal GDP growth at 8.6% for FY26. SBI's Economic Research Department also projected 7.5% growth with upward bias.
The UNDESA (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs) separately projected India's growth at 7.4% for 2025-26, making India the fastest-growing major economy. Key growth drivers cited included robust domestic consumption, strong services sector, digital economy expansion, and infrastructure investment. India's current account deficit was expected to remain manageable at 1.2% of GDP.
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Linked questionEasy
According to the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects update, which major economy was projected to remain among the fastest-growing in 2025 and 2026?
Explanation · Correct answer BThe UN update projected India's growth at 7.4% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026, supported by household consumption, public investment, tax reform effects and lower interest rates. Among the listed major economies, India is therefore the correct answer.
Frequently asked questions
What did Morgan Stanley project for India's FY26 GDP growth rate and how does it compare to the NSO estimate?
**Morgan Stanley projected India's FY26 GDP growth at 7.6%**, which is **20 basis points above** the National Statistics Office's First Advance Estimate of **7.4%**. For FY27, Morgan Stanley projected **6.5% growth**, with nominal GDP growth estimated at **8%** for FY26.
What did SBI's Economic Research Department project for India's GDP growth in FY26?
**SBI's Economic Research Department (ERD) projected 7.5% GDP growth** for FY26 with an upward bias. Other projections included: UNDESA at **7.4%** (making India the fastest-growing major economy), while Morgan Stanley's estimate of 7.6% was the most optimistic among major forecasters.
What are the key drivers of India's GDP growth cited by Morgan Stanley for FY26?
Key growth drivers cited include: **robust domestic consumption**, **strong services sector**, **digital economy expansion**, and **infrastructure investment**. India's current account deficit was expected to remain manageable at **1.2% of GDP**.
What is UNDESA's projection for India's economic growth and what distinction does it give India?
**UNDESA (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs) projected India's growth at 7.4%** for 2025-26. This projection designates India as **the fastest-growing major economy** globally. The projection aligns with the NSO's First Advance Estimate.
How does India's FY27 GDP growth projection compare to its FY26 projection according to Morgan Stanley?
According to Morgan Stanley, India's GDP growth is expected to **moderate from 7.6% in FY26 to 6.5% in FY27**. Despite the slowdown, India remains among the world's fastest-growing major economies, supported by domestic consumption, services, and infrastructure investment.
