The Reserve Bank of India's March 2026 Bulletin has highlighted that the Indian economy continues to show resilience despite a complex global environment marked by severe energy market disruptions and financial volatility arising from geopolitical tensions.

The bulletin notes that supply shocks in crude oil, natural gas, and fertilisers have intensified significantly. The International Energy Agency has described the current episode as 'the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.' Crude prices have witnessed sharp swings, and broader commodity markets have come under pressure, transmitting volatility into financial markets.

Despite these headwinds, the Indian economy is buoyed by robust GDP growth fueled by strong domestic consumption and record agricultural output. However, the bulletin cautions that headline CPI inflation 'picked up in February on account of food and beverages,' particularly due to rising vegetable prices, while global energy shocks are expected to create upside risks to inflation.

India's forex reserves dropped $7.052 billion to $709.759 billion during the week ended March 13, but the RBI emphasizes that reserves remain adequate to provide cushion against external shocks.