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Drought in Rajasthan
8.1 Drought Frequency and Definition
Drought in India is officially defined by IMD as a rainfall deficiency of ≥ 26% below normal in a meteorological subdivision. For Rajasthan:
- Statewide drought: ~3 out of every 10 years; particularly severe droughts in 1899, 1939, 1987, 2002-2003, 2009, 2018
- Western district drought probability: 6–8 out of 10 years (perennial drought-prone zone)
- Rajasthan Drought Prone Areas: National Commission on Agriculture (1976) designated western and central Rajasthan as the nation's most drought-prone region
8.2 Types of Drought in Rajasthan
| Type | Definition | Occurrence in Rajasthan |
|---|---|---|
| Meteorological Drought | ≥26% rainfall deficiency from normal | Most common; 30% probability statewide |
| Agricultural Drought | Soil moisture insufficient for crops even if some rain occurs | More frequent than meteorological drought in sandy soils |
| Hydrological Drought | Groundwater, rivers, reservoirs decline below normal | Intensifying due to groundwater over-extraction |
| Socioeconomic Drought | Supply-demand gap for water/food | Chronic in Thar districts |
Source: NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) Drought Management Guidelines, 2016
8.3 El Niño and Rajasthan Drought Correlation
El Niño — the anomalous warming of the central-eastern Pacific Ocean — suppresses the SW monsoon over India. For Rajasthan, El Niño years have an especially strong drought correlation:
- 1987 drought: Strong El Niño year; Rajasthan received <40% normal rainfall; one of the worst droughts of the 20th century
- 2002 drought: El Niño conditions; severe across all of Rajasthan; government deployed food for work programmes
- 2009 drought: El Niño; Rajasthan rainfall 50% of normal in most districts; Rajasthan government declared drought in 32 of 33 districts
- 2023–24: Weak El Niño; mixed impact — eastern Rajasthan normal, western below normal
Research by IIT Delhi and IMD has established that approximately 70% of severe Rajasthan droughts coincide with El Niño events in the Pacific, giving a 3–6 month advance predictability window for drought preparedness.
8.4 Drought-Related Historical Famines
Rajasthan's arid climate has historically triggered catastrophic famines:
- Great Famine of 1899–1900 (Chhappaniya Akal —): Named for Vikram Samvat year 1956 (= CE 1899); 1.5–2 million deaths across Rajputana; year with 56 (chhappan) calamities in folk memory
- Teli Akal (1812–1813): Major famine in Rajputana
- 1943 Famine echoes: Rajasthan also affected, though Bengal famine was primary
- Post-independence, food distribution infrastructure (PDS), MGNREGS, and drought relief codes have prevented famine mortality, but economic damage remains severe