Phases of Population Growth

Phase I — Stagnant Population (1901–1921)

• Population range: 23.8 crore (1901) to 25.1 crore (1921)
• Decadal growth rate: Very low (0–5%); 1911–1921 decade showed near-zero growth (-0.31%)
• Why? High Birth Rate (45–48 per 1,000) balanced by equally High Death Rate (40–45 per 1,000)
• Causes of high death rate: Famines (Bengal famine 1943 predecessors; Maharashtra famines), epidemics (1918 Spanish flu killed ~12 million Indians), malaria, cholera, plague (1897 Bombay plague epidemic), inadequate healthcare
• 1921 = "Year of the Great Divide": The census year when India's population growth began to turn positive and sustained upward growth began; marks the transition from Phase I to Phase II

Phase II — Steady Growth (1921–1951)

• Population: 25.1 crore (1921) to 36.1 crore (1951)
• Decadal growth rate: ~10–15%
• Why? Birth rate remained high (~40–45/1,000); death rate began declining due to:
  • Improved sanitation and public health (British colonial public health measures post-1918 flu)
  • Famine prevention (though Bengal famine 1943 was catastrophic)
  • Quinine (anti-malarial) becoming more available
  • Better irrigation reducing crop failures
• Still high mortality but declining faster than fertility

Phase III — Explosive Growth (1951–1981)

• Population: 36.1 crore (1951) to 68.3 crore (1981)
• Decadal growth rate: 21–24% — highest growth rates in Indian history
• Why? Classic demographic transition Phase 2 scenario:
  • Death rate plummeted — from ~25/1,000 (1951) to ~15/1,000 (1971): Green Revolution food security, mass vaccination (smallpox eradication 1977), DDT-based malaria control, antibiotics spread, rural health infrastructure expansion
  • Birth rate remained HIGH (~35–40/1,000) — cultural norms, low female education, early marriage, lack of family planning (National Family Planning Programme began 1952 but was ineffective initially)
  • Gap between birth and death rates = explosive population growth ("population bomb")
• Emergency-era sterilisation controversy (1975–77): Forced sterilisation programme under Sanjay Gandhi during Emergency; harsh implementation; politically controversial; set back family planning for a decade

Phase IV — High Growth but Declining Rate (1981–2011) (PYQ 2023 — Q34)

This is the most important phase for RPSC exams — directly tested in PYQ 2023.

• Population: 68.3 crore (1981) to 121.1 crore (2011)
• Decadal growth rates: 1981–1991: 23.79%; 1991–2001: 21.54%; 2001–2011: 17.64%
• Characteristics (PYQ 2023 pattern):
  • Growth rate DECLINING decade by decade
  • But ABSOLUTE numbers added remain very large (181 million in 2001–2011 — largest ever)
  • This is because of the large population base — even a small percentage applied to a large base gives large absolute numbers
• Why rate declined?
  • Female literacy improved significantly
  • Contraceptive prevalence rate rose from ~10% (1970) to ~54% (2010)
  • Government programmes: National Family Welfare Programme, Reproductive and Child Health (RCH), NRHM (2005)
  • Rise in mean age at marriage (female)
  • Urban migration with lower fertility rates
  • Economic development (Kerala model: high literacy → low fertility)
• Why absolute numbers still large?
  • Demographic momentum: large cohort of young people (15–24 years) entering reproductive years
  • Unmet need for family planning in rural/low-income groups
  • Regional variations: South India achieved near-replacement fertility by 1990s; North India (UP, Bihar) still at high fertility levels in 2011

Summary table — PYQ 2023 pattern:

Decade	Population (crore)	Decadal Growth Rate	Absolute Increase (crore)
1981–1991	68.3 → 84.6	23.79%	16.3
1991–2001	84.6 → 102.9	21.54%	18.3
2001–2011	102.9 → 121.1	17.64%	18.2

→ Growth RATE declining; absolute increase STILL high (>18 crore per decade)

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